Chinese New Year has given time for reflection and one question posed to me recently was "How has Chinese business and culture changed in the past 30 years?"

Since my first direct engagement with China was in 1997 while financing Chinese infrastructure projects in the Guangzhou Shenzhen region, I has to dig a little into history to find some relevant context. In order to focus my response to the question, I looked at the most significant changes that occurred in business and culture to create the China we see today.

Continue to work the fields

As with any developing economy, transitioning away from agriculture towards higher value added activities takes time. The last 30 years has seen China's agricultural contribution to GDP move from 26% to below 9%. Naturally China is a huge and diverse country and there will be regions that are still dominated by agriculture.

During a recent visit to Harbin in Heilongjiang province I attended a trade fair and found that over 60% of the exhibitors were showcasing agricultural produce, equipment or supplies. This is in stark contrast to similar exhibitions on the East Coast or the South where you would be lucky to find 5% related to agriculture.

China services dominate in 2017

While agriculture has been the big deliver in contribution to China's Services sector has seen the biggest rise. Again looking at the last 30 years, contributions have risen from 31% to 48% of total GDP. These statistics (wiki/world bank) ran through to 2014 and we can be certain that services now contribute over 50% of GDP which takes it towards the full developed market economy that China assumed on 15th December 2016. 

GDP world rankings

Hardly anyone in business today would not know that China is the world's second largest economy but where was it back in 1987? Figures from the period show that China's nominal GDP stood at $311bn accounting for just 2% of global GDP. By 2014 (wiki) this had risen to $10trn and 12% of global GDP, in second place to the USA's $17trn and 21% ranking. It is important in. Our global village that the significant 'families' understand each other but China's rapid ascent has given little time for the business and political 'norms' to be established. The positive factor is that the two leading nations have diverse and layered economies and societies unlike natural resource heavy countries that have done little to diversify their economies. This is certain to lead to sustainable balanced global growth.

What about Culture?

This area is more qualitative to assess. One area is to count the number of Confucius Schools in the UK today (29) where Chinese culture and thinking are spread e schools and Universities with whom they are partnered. The other area is the qualitative collective pride of the Chinese diaspora about their culture and history. Aside from the flurry of Chinese New Year celebrations at this time of year, you are starting to see more awareness of traditional Chinese values during other periods. Whether it is dragon boat racing at the end of May/beginning June or Golden Week at the end of September, the integration is Chinese culture is definitely more significant that simply Chinese restaurants of the 1980's. 

Another area to see how Chinese culture is influencing the wider world is film and media. Hollywood now creates films specifically for the Chinese market (Avatar, Fast & Furious and KungFu Panda to name but a few) while Chinese actors are not simply portrayed as martial art experts or villains but icons of moral standards.

What about the next 30 years?

We are now more than half way through the 100 year plan where China was to become a moderately prosperous society. With things very much on track, it is challenging to think of China in 30 years time as the world's largest economy with similar super-power projection that is currently enjoyed by the USA.

• Agriculture will have to pay an every important role in feeding the nation although use of advanced environmentally sustainable methods will have to be adopted if the new middle classes are to continue to have access to high protein meat.
• Industrial processes will be heavily skewed towards robotics and while advances in logistics along the One Belt One Road will have helped China consolidate its political control over the ASEAN region.

Culture will continue to be better understood by the world in general although it will be digital and social media that will help this alongside the increasing volume of wealthy middle class tourists seeking new experiences.

So where do you think China will be in 30 years time with regards to business and culture?